The French army’s chief of staff claims that Putin said: “France is my main enemy in Europe.”
I don’t believe Putin ever said that.
And I’ll explain why I think it’s manipulation — and how it connects with cognitive biases.
Let’s look at the context first.
Let’s consider the incentives of the Chief of Staff (and, to a lesser extent, the President).
He wants a strong, well-equipped army.
That’s his job, his mission.
And that justifies his budget, his position, and his influence.
Now, let’s look at the facts:
There is no official statement from Vladimir Putin saying such a thing.
So we’re left with two options:
Either he has access to confidential intelligence.
Or it’s simply not true.
But in either case, if he says it publicly, it’s for a very specific political reason.
What’s the goal?
Justify a bigger defense budget (which also supports Macron’s current military strategy).
Unite the French people — because there’s nothing like an external threat to boost national cohesion.
In short, he has every reason to have this quote floating around.
Even if Putin never actually said it.
What’s amusing is that he later adds:
“Putin probably chose France, maybe along with the UK and others, as one of the most committed countries.”
Wait…
“Probably,” “maybe”… that’s not exactly strong evidence.
It feels shaky, doesn’t it?
My personal estimate?
70% chance he’s lying or distorting the truth.
30% chance it’s real and the quote was said off the record.
Now — that doesn’t mean France isn’t one of Putin’s main targets (especially considering what’s happening in Africa).
And it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t reinforce our military.
But we need to stay sharp.
Read between the lines.
Put yourself in people’s shoes.
Understand their psychology and what they have to gain.
And guess what?
It’s exactly the same in stock investing.
Understanding your own cognitive biases is essential if you want to make smart decisions.
That’s how I’ve managed to generate over 30% annual returns for the past 3 years.
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